Breakfast Bites - Inflation and Senate Vote

US Continuing Jobless Claims spiking; Durable goods orders remain solid; Senate could vote on One Big Beautiful Bill; Tariff deadline looms; Markets maintain momentum

Rise and shine everyone

The S&P climbed to within 40 points of its most recent all-time high, with market breadth showing notable improvement from the previous session. However, trading volumes remained muted. There are lingering concerns around the independence of the Federal Reserve after President Trump suggested he is close to naming a potential shadow FOMC Chairman.

A series of U.S. economic data releases was followed by several Fed speakers. Their messaging emphasized that the labor market remains generally solid and that if inflation continues to decline, interest rates could come down later this year.

While initial jobless claims moderated, continuing claims climbed to their highest level in three and a half years, an indication that hiring may not be as robust even if layoffs are slowing down.

May’s durable goods orders and shipments showed a strong uptick, driven largely by an increase in Boeing production.

The U.S. Treasury curve steepened, with the long end underperforming both the belly and the short end. Meanwhile, natural gas prices fell after EIA data showed inventories rose more than expected for the week.

Today’s focus will be PCE Inflation data out at 8:30 am ET and the tentative Senate Vote on the One Big Beautiful Bill (more below).

PCE Inflation estimates are expected to remain stable on a month-on-month basis, which is expected to bring down the yearly number.